Israeli Incursion and Destruction of the Syrian Army: Military Objectives and Political Messages
On the day that Syrian opposition factions entered Damascus and Bashar al-Assad reportedly fled to Moscow, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a high-profile visit to the occupied Golan Heights. During the visit, Netanyahu declared that Israel’s war on Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran paved the way for the downfall of the Assad regime and “changed the face of the Middle East,” echoing his statements at the start of the war on October 7, 2023.
Netanyahu also announced the collapse of the 1974 Disengagement Agreement, revealing that Israeli forces had entered the buffer zone established by the agreement. Reports indicate that Israeli forces now control Mount Hermon and five towns in the liberated Golan, advancing up to 25 kilometers from Damascus.
Widespread Airstrikes
Since December 9, Israeli airstrikes have targeted Syrian military infrastructure in the largest aerial campaign since the 1973 war. Israel justified the strikes as a measure to prevent Syrian weapons from falling into “hostile hands.” However, factions now governing Damascus have shown no indications of concern for Israel, raising questions about Israel’s motives.
Concerns About Future Control
The Economist reported speculation among Israeli observers that Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, named after his family’s origins in the Golan, might have future ambitions for the region. Others compare HTS’s ideology to that of Hamas, highlighting its links to Turkey. Israel’s intervention may also serve as a message to Ankara, which supports both HTS and Hamas.
In a message to the UN Security Council, Netanyahu described Israel’s actions as “temporary defensive measures” until a suitable arrangement could be reached. However, far-right ministers in Israel’s government have called for annexing parts of the Golan that Israel did not previously occupy.
Strategic Impact on Syria
Israel’s military campaign is likely to weaken the Syrian army further, preventing it from regaining its balance or rebuilding its capabilities. A fragmented Syrian army poses a threat to Syria’s unity and opens the door for alternative governance models. Israeli Foreign Minister Yisrael Katz recently dismissed the idea of a unified Syrian state, suggesting that Israel’s actions align with a broader strategy to redraw the region’s maps in accordance with its security interests.
Long-Term Implications
Carmit Valensi, head of the Syria program at the Institute for National Security Studies, noted that with Assad’s departure and Iran’s diminished influence in Syria, Israel has an opportunity to engage diplomatically with new players and secure its regional security.
In conclusion, Israel’s expansive military campaign in Syria carries both military and political dimensions, signaling a potential shift in the strategic landscape of the Middle East.